Are shoppers . . . simply nice?

Good morning. I’ve recovered from no matter (non-Covid) bug I caught in London. This frees me to look at the shares go down and Treasuries go up, because the frying-pan-to-fire transition from inflation danger to recession danger continues. But it’s not fairly that straightforward, as I focus on beneath. Send us your ideas: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. 

Also, take heed to Ethan discuss stablecoins on the FT Behind the Money podcast.

Mixed messages and combined emotions on the financial system

Here is JPMorgan chief government Jamie Dimon on the financial institution’s investor day on Monday:

The client is in superb form even as we speak, which implies if we go right into a recession, it could be totally different than prior recessions . . . 

Strong financial system, massive storm clouds. I’m calling them storm clouds as a result of they’re storm clouds. They might dissipate. If it was a hurricane, I’d inform you that, or tsunami, like we had in ‘07 or ‘08 . . . Credit looks really good. We’ve by no means seen it this good.

Dimon went on to notice that write-offs within the card mortgage portfolio had been working at about half the historic fee. The financial institution’s chief monetary officer stated that “we are now projecting that the unusually low level of card charge-offs will persist into next year.” Here’s the top of the patron financial institution:

We should not but seeing something in our knowledge, together with in early delinquencies, that may level to an acceleration in credit score metrics, nor are we seeing something to counsel client credit score behaviours have structurally modified.

Recession danger? I’m not listening to it. The chief government of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, seconded the movement at Davos, as CNBC reported:

“Consumers are in good shape, not overleveraged,” Moynihan, CEO of the second-biggest US financial institution by property [said] . . . The financial institution’s prospects have checking and financial savings accounts which are nonetheless bigger than earlier than the pandemic and are spending 10 per cent extra to this point in May than the year-earlier interval, he stated.

“What’s going to slow them down? Nothing right now,” Moynihan stated.

How can we make all this giddy good cheer at America’s two largest banks match with the unhealthy information we’ve got been listening to these days? It doesn’t chime, for instance, with what we heard from Target and Walmart final week. Or the delicate Amazon e-retail outcomes previous to that. Or, for that matter, with the April new dwelling gross sales figures that dropped yesterday, which counsel that the coronavirus pandemic-era housing increase was a blip:

The housing slowdown is the simplest to clarify. Housing transactions are extraordinarily rate-sensitive, and mortgage charges have gone by means of the roof. If you might have a 3-ish per cent mortgage you took out a couple of years in the past in your present home, and you progress to a brand new home, you should have a 5-ish per cent mortgage, and you’ll be paying extra, dwelling in a much less fascinating home, or each. So you would possibly resolve to remain the place you’re, if you happen to can.

The retail information is just a little trickier, however keep in mind the purpose made right here final week. What occurred to Walmart and Target was not primarily about shoppers spending much less. It was about shoppers spending otherwise. Walmart offered fewer arduous items and extra meals than they anticipated, and was left holding an excessive amount of “discretionary” items stock similar to attire. At Target it was the identical scenario, however extra so.

The pessimistic learn on that is that buyers are spending extra cautiously, and the large field retailers didn’t see this coming in time. The optimistic learn was introduced neatly by Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research, in an enjoyable interview with Bloomberg’s Odd Lots. He stated:

The inventory market is generally about “stuff” being offered to folks and different corporations. So, I can see why buyers are anxious. But the financial system is extra about doing issues for folks, companies in different phrases. And that a part of the financial system seems to be booming.

People are conflating a normalisation of consumption behaviour with a recession . . . search curiosity on Kayak has exploded as we’ve got been stating. People are looking out more and more for overseas routes. That doesn’t strike me as recession-like behaviour since flying overseas is normally costlier than flying home . . . Hotel occupancy charges proceed to climb. Dining out has recovered.

Certainly, some indicators counsel that Dutta is on to one thing right here. Solita Marcelli of UBS Wealth Management factors out that final quarter, per-guest spending at Disney’s US resorts was up by 20 per cent from the 12 months earlier than and 40 per cent above 2019 ranges. Air journey is roaring again in direction of pre-pandemic ranges:

And right here is the nationwide private consumption expenditure index for companies with value will increase stripped out — that’s, a amount index of companies consumption:

These knowledge factors don’t seize the entire image, although. We know that actual wages are falling. We know that bank card mortgage volumes have topped their pre-pandemic ranges, and we all know the private financial savings fee has fallen beneath them.

So it’s not all journeys to Disney on the market. If you ask folks working companies companies and manufacturing companies how issues are going, what they inform you just isn’t all that totally different. Business continues to be increasing, however at a diminishing fee, in each areas:

So we’ve got stories of a robust client from the large banks and journey and leisure sectors; however stories of a weakening one from the large retailers and from broad macroeconomic indicators similar to wages and PMIs. Splitting items from companies helps, however doesn’t fully sq. the circle. Another thought is cut up richer shoppers from poorer ones. Here is Marcelli of UBS:

It is evident that inflation has a various impression on totally different sorts of shoppers. For decrease earnings households, increased lease, meals, and vitality costs imply having to chop again on discretionary purchases. But householders sitting on a ton of fairness could also be much less delicate to rising costs of dwelling enchancment instruments.

Indeed, cheery earnings outcomes from Home Depot final week counsel that loads of persons are nonetheless keen to splash out on dwelling renovations, even when constructing supplies are costly.

Our common correspondent Don Rissmiller of Strategas agrees with Marcelli, and raises an attention-grabbing query. If we all know some shoppers are coming underneath stress, and people shoppers’ money owed should not held by the large banks, the place are they held?

I do suppose the products/companies cut up issues, however . . . that’s possible not an entire rationalization [of the varying consumer health indicators]. Two different issues I can consider, each of that are arduous to show however is perhaps exhibiting up right here.

First it may very well be the lower-income cohorts which are feeling essentially the most impression. There are people which are “unbanked” within the US however nonetheless devour items and companies. Another factor is perhaps that after a decade of stress assessments, the massive public banks (these making headlines) have mortgage books which are really in fairly good condition. It’s another person that’s been doing essentially the most aggressive lending. Who that another person is I don’t know, however that’s in all probability the place the monetary danger is.

When occupied with client spending, it could assist to consider a four-box matrix, with “richer consumers” and “poorer consumers” throughout the highest and “goods” and “services” down the aspect. The “richer-services” field is clearly booming. The different three containers are extra up within the air.

One good learn

Somehow I’ve made it over a decade on this trade with out studying Janet Malcolm’s The Journalist and the Murderer. This weekend I bought round to it. I want I hadn’t waited.